9 resultados para Climatic data simulation

em University of Queensland eSpace - Australia


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Combined seasonal to monthly resolution coral skeletal delta(18)O, Sr/Ca, and Mg/Ca records are reported for one modem and two late Holocene Porites lutea corals from a fringing reef at Leizhou Peninsula, the northern coast of the South China Sea (SCS). All the profiles for the period 1989-2000 reveal annual cycles well correlated with instrumental sea surface temperatures (SST), and display broad peaks in summer and narrow troughs in winter, reflecting seasonal growth rate variations. Calibration against instrumental SST yields the following equations: delta(18)O=-0.174(+/- 0.010)xSST(degrees C)-1.02(+/- 0.27) (MSWD=5.8), Sr/Ca-(mmol/mol)=-0.0424(+/- 0.0031)xSST(degrees C)+9.836(+/- 0.082) (MSWD=8.6), and Mg/Ca-(mmol/mol)=0.110(+/- 0.009)XSST(degrees C)+ 1.32(+/- 0.23) (MSWD=55). The scatter in the Mg/Ca-SST relationship is much larger than analytical uncertainties can account for, suggesting the presence of SST-unrelated components in the Mg/Ca variation. Calculated Sr/Ca-SST values for two later Holocene Porites lutea samples (U-series ages similar to 541 BC and similar to 487 AD, respectively) from the same reef suggest that SST in the SCS at similar to 541 BC was nearly as warm as in the 1990s (the warmest decade of the last century), but at similar to 487 AD, it was significantly cooler. This observation is consistent with climatic data reported in Chinese historic documents, confirming that the Sr/Ca-SST relationship is a reliable thermometer. Removing the SST component in the delta(18)O variation based on calculated Sr/Ca-SST values, the residual delta(18)O reflects the deviation of the Holocene seawater delta(18)O from the modem value, which is also a measure of the Holocene sea surface salinity (SSS) or the summer monsoon moisture level in mainland China. Such residual delta(18)O was close to zero at similar to 541 BC and -0.3 parts per thousand at similar to 487 AD, suggesting that it was as wet as in the 1990s at similar to 541 BC but significantly drier at similar to 487 AD in mainland China, which are also consistent with independent historic records. Calculated Mg/Ca-SST values for the two late Holocene corals are significantly lower than the Sr/Ca-SST values and are also in conflict with Chinese historic records, suggesting that coral Mg/Ca is not reliable proxy for SST. At comparable Sr/Ca ranges, fossil corals always display negative Mg/Ca offsets if compared with the modem coral of the same site. We interpret this observation as due to preferential loss of Mg during meteoric dissolution of cryptic Mg-calcite-bearing microbialites in the exposed fossil corals. Microbialites (MgO up to 17%, Sr only 100-300 ppm) are ubiquitous during reef-building processes and their presence in only a trace amount will have a significant impact on coral Mg/Ca ratios without detectable influence on coral Sr/Ca ratios. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Broccoli is a vegetable crop of increasing importance in Australia, particularly in south-east Queensland and farmers need to maintain a regular supply of good quality broccoli to meet the expanding market. A predictive model of ontogeny, incorporating climatic data including frost risk, would enable farmers to predict harvest maturity date and select appropriate cultivar – sowing date combinations. To develop procedures for predicting ontogeny, yield and quality, field studies using three cultivars, ‘Fiesta’, ‘Greenbelt’ and ‘Marathon’, were sown on eight dates from 11 March to 22 May 1997, and grown under natural and extended (16 h) photoperiods at the University of Queensland, Gatton Campus. Cultivar, rather than the environment, mainly determined head quality attributes of head shape and branching angle. Yield and quality were not influenced by photoperiod. A better understanding of genotype and environmental interactions will help farmers optimise yield and quality, by matching cultivars with time of sowing. The estimated base and optimum temperature for broccoli development were 0°C and 20 °C, respectively, and were consistent across cultivars, but thermal time requirements for phenological intervals were cultivar specific. Differences in thermal time requirement from floral initiation to harvest maturity between cultivars were small and of little importance, but differences in thermal time requirement from emergence to floral initiation were large. Sensitivity to photoperiod and solar radiation was low in the three cultivars used. This research has produced models to assist broccoli farmers in crop scheduling and cultivar selection in south-east Queensland.

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We model nongraphitized carbon black surfaces and investigate adsorption of argon on these surfaces by using the grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation. In this model, the nongraphitized surface is modeled as a stack of graphene layers with some carbon atoms of the top graphene layer being randomly removed. The percentage of the surface carbon atoms being removed and the effective size of the defect ( created by the removal) are the key parameters to characterize the nongraphitized surface. The patterns of adsorption isotherm and isosteric heat are particularly studied, as a function of these surface parameters as well as pressure and temperature. It is shown that the adsorption isotherm shows a steplike behavior on a perfect graphite surface and becomes smoother on nongraphitized surfaces. Regarding the isosteric heat versus loading, we observe for the case of graphitized thermal carbon black the increase of heat in the submonolayer coverage and then a sharp decline in the heat when the second layer is starting to form, beyond which it increases slightly. On the other hand, the isosteric heat versus loading for a highly nongraphitized surface shows a general decline with respect to loading, which is due to the energetic heterogeneity of the surface. It is only when the fluid-fluid interaction is greater than the surface energetic factor that we see a minimum-maximum in the isosteric heat versus loading. These simulation results of isosteric heat agree well with the experimental results of graphitization of Spheron 6 (Polley, M. H.; Schaeffer, W. D.; Smith, W. R. J. Phys. Chem. 1953, 57, 469; Beebe, R. A.; Young, D. M. J. Phys. Chem. 1954, 58, 93). Adsorption isotherms and isosteric heat in pores whose walls have defects are also studied from the simulation, and the pattern of isotherm and isosteric heat could be used to identify the fingerprint of the surface.

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Fuzzy data has grown to be an important factor in data mining. Whenever uncertainty exists, simulation can be used as a model. Simulation is very flexible, although it can involve significant levels of computation. This article discusses fuzzy decision-making using the grey related analysis method. Fuzzy models are expected to better reflect decision-making uncertainty, at some cost in accuracy relative to crisp models. Monte Carlo simulation is used to incorporate experimental levels of uncertainty into the data and to measure the impact of fuzzy decision tree models using categorical data. Results are compared with decision tree models based on crisp continuous data.